Dec 21 2008
Predict: When do we get our first non-fantasy, big success MMO?
If you follow MMOs, you will frequently read complaints that the majority of MMOs are fantasy based. There are many reasons for this, the largest being the simple fact that gamers just like the setting. The historical connection to Dungeons and Dragons also cannot be ignored.
The MMO industry is definitely very healthy right now - even beyond the huge success of World of Warcraft. Both Age of Conan and Warhammer Online surpassed 800,000 subscribers within the first month of their release. This is pretty amazing when you consider it was just a few years ago that 100,000 subscribers was the number that defined an MMO as a “hit.”
But those games were both fantasy. On the flip side, Tabula Rasa recently announced that it will close its servers in February of 2009. The epic fail of Star Wars: Galaxies is widely known. After all, SWG was supposed to be the game of WoW-like proportions that dominated the MMO market. City of Heroes is hanging on to a thread at about 120,000 subscribers - down from a peak of near 200,000 when the City of Villains expansion came out.
And what do we have over the horizon? Darkfall is scheduled for release in early 2009, but it is a smaller budget game and fantasy. Primordiax is scheduled for release in 2009, but it is also fantasy and is made by a small developer (full disclosure: that small developer would be my company, Frogdice). There are two possible super hero games for 2009 - Champions Online and Marvel Universe Online. Bioware announced their Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic MMO, but I would be shocked if that game comes out before 2010. And even if it does, the Star Wars genre is only borderline sci-fi. With the force, jedi, light sabers, rancors, and fantasy elements, Star Wars is at best a fantasy/sci-fi hybrid.
So a few questions for you all:
- Are we going to see a non-fantasy MMO that can break the new “big market success” barrier of 500,000 subscribers?
- If so, which one do you think it will be?
- If not, why not?
- What will be required for a non-fantasy MMO to attain fantasy-MMO type success?
Eve Online seems to be about halfway there, at around 250,000 subscribers, the last I read. They seem to have been able to sustain steady, but small growth over the past couple of years.
From the previews, the KOTOR MMO does look like WoW in Space Stations. There are light saber battles where the light sabers don’t cut guns, walls, columns, and limbs in pieces as in the movies, but instead bounce off the opponent like a normal MMO sword. And the opponents just square off, stationary, and run the weapon attack animation over and over. So while Star Wars in general could be done without it being too much of a fantasy hybrid (maybe a creation inspired by X-Wing vs. Tie Fighter or Rogue Squadron) it looks like the Bioware offering will be more of the same. But Bioware makes some great games, you never know.
I think hybrid fantasy/sci-fi settings like the Star Wars universe are great for a few reasons. For one, Star Wars generates instant interest because of the name recognition. The KOTOR series also brings in a number of rabid fans, and counteracts some of the negativity left behind by previous poorly made Star Wars games. Also, the hybrid setting serves as a sort of gateway drug to help people break the tight association between fantasy and RPGs. It’s true that many of the best RPGs/MMOs are fantasy-based, because they account for the majority of the games released. Law of averages. But I also have gaming friends who dismiss non-fantasy RPGs out of hand. That’s a shame, but having some outside motivation to try non-fantasy games is a good thing. Superhero/sci-fi games do seem like the logical step beyond ‘traditional’ fantasy, so I hope there are some notable successes that get people thinking outside the fantasy box.
I do think that for the near future at least, non-fantasy MMOs based on original or fairly obscure IP will be a tough sell. If games like the KOTOR MMO do well though, hopefully it’ll open the doors for future successes.
If you hadn’t disqualified KoToR, I would have chosen that. That game will be huge.
Other than that, I don’t know. I definitely think it’s possible for a non fantasy mmo to make it big, but nothing that’s been announced at this point will break the 500k barrier. Maybe a Battlefield mmo would do it though. I think it’ll ultimately take a strong liscence that means something to casual gamers and a skilled development team.
We all can relate to history or at least our contemporary imagination of it. The Middle Ages seem to have the most appeal, they are the base of most fantasy games and novels. But future is often more about technology and machines than your character. In EVE, I am more or less a Armageddon BB, a fast Minmatar frigate, but not a char like my avatar in WoW, GW or other games. The fantasy setting of magic seems to offer the most and easily and readily available tools and possibilities for the world, enemy creatures and your personal character development. While it is new an exciting, it is still familiar enough for us to feel at home in this setting, which is very important.
Future worlds are either just unimaginable or just recycle old known things like government, justice, weapons and stuff in a new way, often just with new and fancy gear. But technology is so much harder to balance than “magic”. Truly new concepts are also very hard to communicate to the public. I also think that the more or less ranged combat of the future is a problem for MMOs. People did not find a solution for it yet, melee and short ranged attacks/spells predominate.
KOTOR is more like the old Lucasarts Action-Adventures than a MMO, btw.
Don’t forget the Warhammer 40K MMO. The developers are in my hometown but I doubt that I’ll enjoy it. Anyway, it might turn out to be a hit. The next big MMO may not be Sci-Fi, I’m hoping that Age of Reptiles makes it on the mainstream market.
Personally,I’m still waiting for a strong non-DIKU MMO to launch, and the setting comes second.
A friend of mine just suggested something that made me think of this thread:
Grand Theft Auto MMO
That would have an absolutely INSANE amount of subscribers.